Bitcoin price may still drop 40% after FTX ‘Lehman second’ — analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) noticed a contemporary rejection at $17,000 on Nov. 18 as nervous markets weathered extra FTX fallout.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

BTC will get $12,000 price goal

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed BTC/USD failing to flip $17,000 to assist — a pattern in place for nearly every week.

The pair, like main altcoins, remained firmly tied down by chilly toes over the FTX debacle and its knock-on results for varied crypto companies.

For analysts, the outlook remained simply as grim, with already dismal forecasts worsening in gentle of current occasions.

“This underperformance of all crypto property is right here to remain till the majority of uncertainly has cleared up – seemingly solely close to the flip of the brand new 12 months,” buying and selling agency QCP Capital wrote in its newest round to Telegram channel subscribers on the day.

In an intensive market abstract, QCP wrote that its price forecasts for each Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) now needed to drop to mirror the impression of FTX.

Updating a prognosis primarily based on Elliott Wave concept from June, it confirmed BTC/USD now had a goal of $12,000 and ETH/USD $800.

“As a side-note, crypto markets have been buying and selling akin to commodities ever because the 2017 high – with prolonged Wave 5s because the longest wave,” the put up added.

“Hence such potential price motion with new lows into the brand new 12 months could be attribute of earlier bear market sell-offs.”

An accompanying chart highlighted the divergence between crypto and shares in November, correlation between them firmly shaken because of crypto’s underperformance.

Bitcoin price may still drop 40% after FTX 'Lehman second' — analysis
BTC/USD vs. ETH/USD vs. S&P 500 chart. Source: QCP Capital

Popular dealer and analyst Cantering Clark in the meantime famous that if the present bear market in threat property have been to repeat the Global Financial Crisis, heavy losses have been still to come back.

“The Lehman chapter was the climax of the 2008 monetary disaster. It was backside materials qualitatively, however the market paused after which dedicated to 40% decrease,” a part of a tweet read.

“Never say by no means, and do not let your guard down.”

Bitcoin price may still drop 40% after FTX 'Lehman second' — analysis
S&P 500 annotated chart. Source: Cantering Clark/ Twitter

As Cointelegraph reported, $13,500 has additionally turn out to be a well-liked draw back goal.

Crypto pie “being lower massively”

Continuing, QCP additionally voiced issues over declining volumes and open curiosity (OI) throughout each centralized (CEXes) and decentralized (DEXes) exchanges.

Related: US crypto exchanges lead Bitcoin exodus: Over $1.5B in BTC withdrawn in a single week

“So far, CEX spinoff change volumes have been most affected. Combined futures OI is now again to pre-2021 ranges, a large backward step for the trade,” it wrote.

Bitcoin price may still drop 40% after FTX 'Lehman second' — analysis
Bitcoin futures open curiosity chart. Source: QCP Capital

On the subject of DEXes, it mentioned the information “implies the complete crypto pie is being lower massively.”

“Overall DeFi TVL is now lower than 1/4 final 12 months’s peak!” the put up summarized alongside extra explanatory charts.

“Even DEXes which might be anticipated to achieve probably the most, have solely seen volumes rise to Jul/Aug ranges, even with all of the emergency token/stables/chain swapping that wanted to be performed post-FTX.”

Bitcoin price may still drop 40% after FTX 'Lehman second' — analysis
DEX volumes chart. Source: QCP Capital

The views and opinions expressed listed here are solely these of the writer and don’t essentially mirror the views of Every funding and buying and selling transfer entails threat, it’s best to conduct your personal analysis when making a choice.